More Senate Races


I have already introduced the races where there is a Democrat retiring.  This morning I’ll introduce the retiring Republican seats.

There are 5, 1 more than retiring Democrats.  [Technically they count the MA Senate race as a retirement, but since it has already been run and won, I won’t be counting that here].

The retiring seats make me nervous and excited at the same time.  On the one hand, it’s an awesome opportunity to get someone new in the seat.  On the other, there is a real chance the Dems could use the opportunity and take a seat away.  In any event, the Repubs have 5 open seats:

FL R Republican Meek R 14
KS R Republican Democrat R Wide
KY R Republican Democrat R 5
MO R Blunt Carnahan R 0.6
NH R Ayyote Hodes R 7.7
OH R Portman Democrat R 4.5

This looks good, but I see some ares of concern.  Missouri is one of them.  The Democrat, Carnahan, has been leading since early last year.  However, with the tide turning against the Democrats we have seen a resurgence in the popularity of Blunt.  If the Democrats remain tone deaf and continue to stay Left, the seat should stay red.  If however, the Tea Party movement falters and make mistakes [entirely possible] OR if the Democrats wise up and become more inclusive, we could see the tide reverse itself and see public support slide back towards Carnahan.  The other seats should be safe.  Kansas is so safe, in fact, that few polls even bother to watch the race.

So, let’s say that we win 4 and lose 1; maybe Missouri.  With my expected results from the Democrat’s retiring Senators leaving us at D-56 and R-44, this election gives the Dems a seat.

D-57 and R-43

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