May 3, 2010: Chance of Recession in the Next 12 Months — 00.055%


Nothing has changed in one month.  The New York Fed continues to report the chance of Recession at 0.055%.  Looking good heading into summer.

As a note, the NBER usually reports that a recession has ended about 20 months after that recession ended.  I have been saying the “current” recession ended in the end of May, 2009.  20 months after May 2009 is January 2011.  Some folks think I’m early, which means NBER won’t report until AFTER February 2011.  We have a bit of a wait.

Chance of Recession May, 2011

Advertisements
1 comment
  1. Will S. said:

    NEW at The Will of The People…

    The Great Recession: Quite a Trip

    http://iamthewill.wordpress.com/

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: