Senate Race 2010: VI


Almost every state has completed it’s primary.  The contestants are well understood.  Some folks are calling for a switch in both chambers.  While I’m not following the House elections, I just don’t see it in the Senate.

In the first group, we have retiring Democrats:

State Circumstance Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
CT Retiring Dem Blumenthal McMahon Democrat Democrat 20.6
DE Retiring Dem Coons Castle Democrat Republican 20
IL Retiring Dem Giannoulias Kirk Democrat Republican 3.3
IN Retiring Dem Ellsworth Coats Democrat Republican 10.4
ND Retiring Dem Heitkamp Hoeven Democrat Republican 27

I see the Republicans winning 4 of the 5 seats.

SCORE Democrats 55 Republicans 45

The next group is retiring Republicans:

State Circumstance Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
FL Retiring Rep Crist Rubio Republican Independent 4.8
KS Retiring Rep Republican Republican
KY Retiring Rep Conway Paul Republican Republican 5.7
MO Retiring Rep Carnahan Blunt Republican Republican 4.5
NH Retiring Rep Hodes Republican Republican Republican 8
OH Retiring Rep Fisher Portman Republican Democrat 1.3

This one is tricky; Crist throws a monkey wrench in the whole thing.  I think he’ll win and caucus with the Republicans.

SCORE: Democrats 56 Republicans 44

The next group is End of Term Democrats:

State Circumstance Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
AR Term Dem Lincoln Boozman Democrat Republican 22
CA Term Dem Boxer Fiorina Democrat Democrat 6.4
CO Term Dem Bennet Norton Democrat Republican 2
HI Term Dem Democrat Democrat
MD Term Dem Democrat Democrat
NV Term Dem Reid Angle Democrat Republican 1.3
NY Term Dem Gillibrand Blakeman Democrat Democrat 17.7
NY Term Dem Democrat Democrat
OR Term Dem Wyden Huffman Democrat Democrat 11.5
PA Term Dem Sestak Toomey Democrat Republican 1.4
VE Term Dem Democrat Democrat
WA Term Dem Murray Rossi Democrat Democrat 3
WI Term Dem Feingold Johnson Democrat Democrat 1

Again, tricky.  I think Nevada will switch.  I bet we split Colorado and Pennsylvania.

SCORE:  Democrats 54 Republicans 46

And the last group; End of Term Republicans:

AL Term Repub Republican Republican
AK Term Repub Republican Republican
AZ Term Repub Glassman Republican Republican Republican 25 06/28/10
GA Term Repub Republican Republican
ID Term Repub Republican Republican
IA Term Repub Conlin Grassley Republican Republican 17 06/28/10
NC Term Repub Marshall Burr Republican Republican 6 06/28/10
OK Term Repub Republican Republican
LA Term Repub Melancon Vitter Republican Republican 15.7 06/28/10
SC Term Repub Republican Republican
SD Term Repub Republican Republican
UT Term Repub Republican Republican

I don’t think it’s even close here.  Republicans hold serve.

SCORE:  Democrats 54 Republicans 46

I just don’t see that big a swing heading into 2012.

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