July 12, 2010: Chance of Recession in the Next 12 Months — 00.122%


For the 23rd consecutive month, the NY Fed says that the chance of recession in the next 12 months is under 1%.  However, for only the second time in 8 months has that value gone up.

The Twins have a better chance of winning the, um, of winning the, jeez, of winning the Division than we have of going into recession in the next 12 months.

As I mentioned in a recent post, I was called out by TJIC.  He felt that a 200 : 1 odds wasn’t accurate.  In fact, if you go to INTRADE, you will see that the odds are:

TJIC is correct, the chance that we go into recession, determined by actual betters, is much higher.  By a factor of a hundred in 2010 and 200 in 2011.

And like I said in that recent post of mine:

I continue to the “Chance of Recession” as it really is a rating of some interest rate spreads.  However, I have added 4 measures:

  1. A rolling 6 month average
  2. A rolling 3 month average
  3. A 10 month climbing trend
  4. a 4 month climbing trend

I have updated my data and even with those 4 new values, I see virtually no chance of recession for the next 12 months.

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