For the 23rd consecutive month, the NY Fed says that the chance of recession in the next 12 months is under 1%. However, for only the second time in 8 months has that value gone up.
The Twins have a better chance of winning the, um, of winning the, jeez, of winning the Division than we have of going into recession in the next 12 months.
TJIC is correct, the chance that we go into recession, determined by actual betters, is much higher. By a factor of a hundred in 2010 and 200 in 2011.
And like I said in that recent post of mine:
I continue to the “Chance of Recession” as it really is a rating of some interest rate spreads. However, I have added 4 measures:
- A rolling 6 month average
- A rolling 3 month average
- A 10 month climbing trend
- a 4 month climbing trend
I have updated my data and even with those 4 new values, I see virtually no chance of recession for the next 12 months.