Senate Race 2010: VII


Been awhile. As predicted, the races are gelling, firming up.  There are run a ways and there are tight races.  In some cases the candidates have swapped front-runner position. Here is the rundown:

State Circumstance Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
CT Retiring Dem Blumenthal McMahon Democrat Democrat 16.3
DE Retiring Dem Coons Castle Democrat Republican 11
IL Retiring Dem Giannoulias Kirk Democrat Democrat 1.7
IN Retiring Dem Ellsworth Coats Democrat Republican 21
ND Retiring Dem Heitkamp Hoeven Democrat Republican 27

This is an interesting group.  And only because we are seeing a much tighter race in Illinois than folks anticipated.  The reason?  This is Barack Obama’s seat; the Dems can NOT afford to lose this one.  They are pouring it on.  My prediction?  They lose it.

+4 to the Republicans

State Circumstance Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner
FL Retiring Rep Crist Rubio Republican Independent
KS Retiring Rep Republican Republican
KY Retiring Rep Conway Paul Republican Republican
MO Retiring Rep Carnahan Blunt Republican Republican
NH Retiring Rep Hodes Republican Republican Republican
OH Retiring Rep Fisher Portman Republican Democrat

This one has stayed stable.  Ohio remains a wild card but so does Florida.  I stay with my original prediction that the Dems take a seat/

-1 to the Republicans.

State Circumstance Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
AR Term Dem Lincoln Boozman Democrat Republican 25
CA Term Dem Boxer Fiorina Democrat Democrat 4.4
CO Term Dem Bennet Norton Democrat Republican 6
HI Term Dem Democrat Democrat
MD Term Dem Democrat Democrat
NV Term Dem Reid Angle Democrat Democrat 1.6
NY Term Dem Gillibrand Blakeman Democrat Democrat 17.7
NY Term Dem Democrat Democrat
OR Term Dem Wyden Huffman Democrat Democrat 17
PA Term Dem Sestak Toomey Democrat Republican 2
VE Term Dem Democrat Democrat
WA Term Dem Murray Rossi Democrat Democrat 2
WI Term Dem Feingold Johnson Democrat Republican 2

And then this group; crazy!   Washington and Wisconsin are in the mix.  And Nevada is back in play.  I no longer think the Dems will split Colorado and Pennsylvania; the Republicans will take ’em both.  Nevada back in play with Wisconsin and Washington?  Repubs get one of ’em.

Republicans +4

And the termed Repubs?  No chance for the Democrats to steal one.

Final score?  Republicans +7.  52-48.

Add to FacebookAdd to DiggAdd to Del.icio.usAdd to StumbleuponAdd to RedditAdd to BlinklistAdd to TwitterAdd to TechnoratiAdd to Yahoo BuzzAdd to Newsvine

Advertisements
1 comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: