Senate Race 2010: VIII


I have updated the races here

Without going into details, I have the Republicans picking up 7 seats and holding 48 seats.  To be sure I have my bias.

So, to see how people who actually “put their money where their mouth is” I went to Intrade.

They have multiple contracts on the number of seats the Republicans will hold after the election.  The markets are saying that there is better than a 90% chance that Republicans will take either 1, 2, 3 or 4.  That is, each of those contracts is trading at better than 90%.

The biggest drop, and where the trading is less than 50%, is when you go from the Republicans taking 6 seats and them taking 7.

Here is the comparison:

The market is saying that the Republicans will take 6 seats, not 7.

I can live with that.

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