August 11, 2010: Chance of Recession in the Next 12 Months — 00.313%


We are now running at 23 months* of consecutive sub 1% Chance of Recession as predicted by the New York Fed.

And, like last month, I have kept up my new expanded metrics.  For 35 consecutive months, my four leading indicators of Recession risk have been zero.  Not one of ’em has signaled a recession.  For the first time in just under 3 years, I have hit a signal; 2 out of 4 running months with a rising chance of recession.

We have seen a rising chance of recession for 3 consecutive months now.  In fact, today’s chance is over 2.5x that of 3 months ago and over 7.6x that of just 4 months ago.

We have a way to go before we hit my next indicator, but we’re trending upwards.

With that said, the chance of recession is next to zero:

Further,watching real people place real money bets is interesting too:

The odds we hit a recession in 2010 are up from 15.3 to 17.9,  Also up are the chance we go into recession in 2011 from 34 to 40 and then again in 2012 from 37.0 to 41.

The data suggests that we still have little chance to enter into recession.  However, this data maybe skewed due to the fact that interest rates can really go no lower.  The folks with the money seem to think that we have a rising chance.

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