Senate Race 2010: XI


Time for some status.  All the big primaries are over and we know who is running against who.

First, the Retiring Democrats:

State Status Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
CT Ret. Dem Blumenthal McMahon Democrat Democrat 7.5
DE Ret. Dem Coons O’Donnell Democrat Democrat 15
IL Ret. Dem Giannoulias Kirk Democrat Republican 1
IN Ret. Dem Ellsworth Coats Democrat Republican 16
ND Ret. Dem Heitkamp Hoeven Democrat Republican 27

I think we lost Delaware.  And that’s okay.  We weren’t going to take the Senate and this sent a message to the Republican establishment; Come big or Stay Home.

From my count, we moved from taking 4 to only taking 3.

The next group is the retiring Republicans.  The only news of note is that Florida is steadily moving away from I-Crist to R-Rubio.  One for the good guys:

State Status Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
FL Ret. Rep Crist Rubio Republican Republican 10
KS Ret. Rep Republican Republican
KY Ret. Rep Conway Paul Republican Republican 7
MO Ret. Rep Carnahan Blunt Republican Republican 5.5
NH Ret. Rep Hodes Ayotte Republican Republican 6.4
OH Ret. Rep Fisher Portman Republican Republican 13.3

We lose 0.

The biggie.  This is the one that counts; Term Limited Democrats.  In my mind, we move from taking 4 to taking 5.  Ohio went our way.

State Status Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
AR Term Dem Lincoln Boozman Democrat Republican 25
CA Term Dem Boxer Fiorina Democrat Democrat 5.5
CO Term Dem Bennet Buck Democrat Republican 2.4
HI Term Dem Democrat Democrat
MD Term Dem Democrat Democrat
NV Term Dem Reid Angle Democrat Democrat 0.5
NY Term Dem Gillibrand Blakeman Democrat Democrat 6
NY Term Dem Democrat Democrat
OR Term Dem Wyden Huffman Democrat Democrat 16
PA Term Dem Sestak Toomey Democrat Republican 6.8
VE Term Dem Democrat Democrat
WA Term Dem Murray Rossi Democrat Democrat 6.2
WI Term Dem Feingold Johnson Democrat Republican 8

Now, I admit, I AM ASSUMING that we win one of the three:  New York, California or Nevada.  BIG assumption.  But that’s 5 to the good.

And the Term Limited Republicans?  The news is so good I’m not even going to post it!  We lose 0.  Not even close.

That means I have the Republicans picking up 8 in the Senate.  That moves us from 59-41 to 51-49.

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1 comment
  1. cmitchz said:

    You’ve forgotten WV, where I think Raese will defeat Manchin.

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