The Debt Limit, Budget, Deficit and Debt: Update


So, yesterday I posted about a possible solution to the deficit and the debt. In those plans I accommodated those on the right who insist on a plan that includes no new revenues due to tax increases.  Further, I accommodated those on the left who insist on a plan that doesn’t cut; in fact my plan GROWS government each and every single year.

As I ended my analysis I demonstrated a method by which both of those targets were met AND we backed away from the debt limit that we are struggling with today.  The solution began to reduce the the deficit in year 1.  And it balanced the budget in year 19.  It’s the perfect trifecta.

But what if we can do better?  What if we can reduce the amount of time in which we are free of the deficit?

I think we can:

All we have to do is is take one giant gulp and step back our level of spending to pre-stimulus years.  That is take us back to the level of spending we last saw in 2008.  This is what we get:

Year Projected Receipts Projected Outlays Delta Receipt Rate Outlay Rate
2011 2173.7 2982.5 -808.8 0.072 0.040
2012 2330.21 3101.8 -771.59
2013 2497.98 3225.87 -727.89
2014 2677.84 3354.91 -677.07
2015 2870.64 3489.1 -618.46
2016 3077.33 3628.67 -551.34
2017 3298.89 3773.81 -474.92
2018 3536.41 3924.77 -388.35
2019 3791.04 4081.76 -290.72
2020 4063.99 4245.03 -181.04
2021 4356.6 4414.83 -58.23
2022 4670.27 4591.42 78.85
2023 5006.53 4775.08 231.45
2024 5367 4966.08 400.92

Not bad, not bad at all….We reduce the time from 19 years all the way to 11.  And yes, this would represent a massive reduction in spending.  And maybe, no-not maybe, for sure, some of that spending has to be cut from prized programs.  This would include the military, it would include entitlement programs and would include cuts to other pet discretionary spending.  So, perhaps this is too much for you gentle reader?  How about this?  Take the 2008 spending and allow it to grow at our 4% limit like we would like, that would have made 2011 spending look like 3354.91.  What would that look like?

Year Projected Receipts Projected Outlays Delta Receipt Rate Outlay Rate
2011 2173.7 3354.91 -1181.21 0.072 0.040
2012 2330.21 3489.11 -1158.9
2013 2497.98 3628.67 -1130.69
2014 2677.84 3773.82 -1095.98
2015 2870.64 3924.77 -1054.13
2016 3077.33 4081.76 -1004.43
2017 3298.89 4245.03 -946.14
2018 3536.41 4414.83 -878.42
2019 3791.04 4591.43 -800.39
2020 4063.99 4775.08 -711.09
2021 4356.6 4966.09 -609.49
2022 4670.27 5164.73 -494.46
2023 5006.53 5371.32 -364.79
2024 5367 5586.17 -219.17
2025 5753.43 5809.62 -56.19
2026 6167.67 6042 125.67
2027 6611.75 6283.68 328.06
2028 7087.79 6535.03 552.76

Maybe that’s the better compromise.  We allow 2008 spending to continue rising at 4% setting the 2011 spending at 3354.91.  This produces a balanced budget in 2026; 13 years out.

This can be done, we can do it, we only lack the will.

 

 

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1 comment
  1. Alan Scott said:

    pino ,

    One political party is not serious about reducing the debt . There is only so much you can do with the House of Representatives . It amazes me just how much Democrats are willing to deceive everyone . They come out with a bunch of phony cuts and proclaim to the universe that they are willing to compromise and be reasonable .

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