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Again with politicians making up language that fits their needs.

I once had an English teacher in high school.  We were reading “The Merchant of Venice”.  In the story, Shylock loses his estate due to a quirk of law.  On one of our tests, the English teachers asks the True or False question:

Shylock lost half of his estate due to his legal dealings with Antonio.

I answered, “False”.  After all, he lost the whole of the estate.

She marked it wrong, saying that if he lost ALL of his estate, certainly he lost half of it as well.

Words have meanings.

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It really started a long time ago.  While the Democrats controlled the Senate with a bone crushing majority, they knew, they KNEW that they had to have 60 to pass Obamacare.

So, they id what they had to do, scheduled vote after vote and passed the thing in the dead of night on Christmas Eve.  The bill wasn’t perfect, but they could send it to the House, tweak it, and get it through later.

But then Scott Brown won.  So the only option left open was for the House to pass the Senate Bill as was.  And they couldn’t do it.

Only they did.

But they knew then that what they had done was crap.

They knew it then.

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Very little has changed:

State Status Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
CT Ret. Dem Blumenthal McMahon Democrat Democrat 12.5
DE Ret. Dem Coons O’Donnell Democrat Democrat 17.2
IL Ret. Dem Giannoulias Kirk Democrat Republican 2.8
IN Ret. Dem Ellsworth Coats Democrat Republican 19.3
ND Ret. Dem Heitkamp Hoeven Democrat Republican 47

As you can see, there are still 3 Republican wins.

And the races with retiring Republicans is the same as well, all Republican wins.

The situation where the Democrat is facing the end of the term is also the same, only with a bit more clarity:

State Status Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
AR Term Dem Lincoln Boozman Democrat Republican 16.7
CA Term Dem Boxer Fiorina Democrat Democrat 6.4
CO Term Dem Bennet Buck Democrat Republican 1.6
HI Term Dem

Democrat Democrat
MD Term Dem

Democrat Democrat
NV Term Dem Reid Angle Democrat Republican 1.8
NY Term Dem Gillibrand Blakeman Democrat Democrat 22.4
NY Term Dem

Democrat Democrat
OR Term Dem Wyden Huffman Democrat Democrat 18
PA Term Dem Sestak Toomey Democrat Republican 3.2
VE Term Dem

Democrat Democrat
WA Term Dem Murray Rossi Democrat Democrat 2.2
WI Term Dem Feingold Johnson Democrat Republican 6

Still, the Republicans walk with 5.

And, where Republicans are facing the end of the term, again, no Democrat wins.

I still see an 8 seat swing for the Republicans.

Dems – 51 Republicans 49.

However, the smart money doesn’t agree with me:

You make the call.  Either way, a good day at the office for the Republicans.

Time for some status.  All the big primaries are over and we know who is running against who.

First, the Retiring Democrats:

State Status Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
CT Ret. Dem Blumenthal McMahon Democrat Democrat 7.5
DE Ret. Dem Coons O’Donnell Democrat Democrat 15
IL Ret. Dem Giannoulias Kirk Democrat Republican 1
IN Ret. Dem Ellsworth Coats Democrat Republican 16
ND Ret. Dem Heitkamp Hoeven Democrat Republican 27

I think we lost Delaware.  And that’s okay.  We weren’t going to take the Senate and this sent a message to the Republican establishment; Come big or Stay Home.

From my count, we moved from taking 4 to only taking 3.

The next group is the retiring Republicans.  The only news of note is that Florida is steadily moving away from I-Crist to R-Rubio.  One for the good guys:

State Status Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
FL Ret. Rep Crist Rubio Republican Republican 10
KS Ret. Rep Republican Republican
KY Ret. Rep Conway Paul Republican Republican 7
MO Ret. Rep Carnahan Blunt Republican Republican 5.5
NH Ret. Rep Hodes Ayotte Republican Republican 6.4
OH Ret. Rep Fisher Portman Republican Republican 13.3

We lose 0.

The biggie.  This is the one that counts; Term Limited Democrats.  In my mind, we move from taking 4 to taking 5.  Ohio went our way.

State Status Democrat Republican Incumbent Front Runner Spread
AR Term Dem Lincoln Boozman Democrat Republican 25
CA Term Dem Boxer Fiorina Democrat Democrat 5.5
CO Term Dem Bennet Buck Democrat Republican 2.4
HI Term Dem Democrat Democrat
MD Term Dem Democrat Democrat
NV Term Dem Reid Angle Democrat Democrat 0.5
NY Term Dem Gillibrand Blakeman Democrat Democrat 6
NY Term Dem Democrat Democrat
OR Term Dem Wyden Huffman Democrat Democrat 16
PA Term Dem Sestak Toomey Democrat Republican 6.8
VE Term Dem Democrat Democrat
WA Term Dem Murray Rossi Democrat Democrat 6.2
WI Term Dem Feingold Johnson Democrat Republican 8

Now, I admit, I AM ASSUMING that we win one of the three:  New York, California or Nevada.  BIG assumption.  But that’s 5 to the good.

And the Term Limited Republicans?  The news is so good I’m not even going to post it!  We lose 0.  Not even close.

That means I have the Republicans picking up 8 in the Senate.  That moves us from 59-41 to 51-49.

I have been tracking the whole Brett Favre thing; especially in Vegas and then on Intrade.  And while I was there this morning I stopped by the Midterm Senate race page and saw this:

The Number of seats expected to be held by the Republicans that clears 50% has gone up 1 from 47 to 48.  The market is clearing at 48 seats!

Excellent news on a Wednesday morning.  Almost as good as seeing the chances of Brett Favre playing again at 96%.

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