Every indication points to the eventuality of Iran obtaining the technology to build a nuclear bomb. It is my humble opinion that:
- A nation has the right to obtain such technology.
- We have no real ability to prevent this eventuality.
Rather than expend resources and political capital on attempting to prevent the inevitable, I think that we should prepare for the undeniable. A nuclear Iran. And as part of that planning, we need to address the following.
Can We Trust Iran To Be Rational
In other words, is Iran a nation ruled by people who respond to incentives in the way and manner that we would respond to those same incentives?
It turns out that Soviet Russia was. They understood and reacted rationally to our nuclear stand-off. Same goes with India and Pakistan.
Or do we think that Iran is led by a mindset that is mostly based in ideology, a religious ideology? The most obvious example of which is the existence of Israel.
This question HAS to be answered. And after it has been answered, all plans must account for the general agreement.
What Nations Put And Take With A Nuclear Iran
Who gains and loses when Iran obtains the technology and the ability to launch nuclear weapons? The obvious losers are the United States and Israel. But less obvious is who gains? Understand not only who gains but why will allow us to negate many of the perceived “advantages” of those nations.
My guess is that the current modern world is mostly stable in terms of boundaries. Certainly there will be small and rather negligent “map changes” but by and large the shape of our nations are mostly settled. What isn’t settled is the economic influence of our nations as they stand.
How does China benefit, if they do, by a nuclear Iran? Hell, how does Iran benefit from a nuclear Iran?
How Do We Negotiate With A Nuclear Iran
The Soviets had them and modern Russia does. North Korea does, as does China. Several other nations as well. None of them have initiated a nuclear launch.
How will Iran be prevented from the same? What will it take, what changes will have to be made, if any at all really, to prevent the launch of an Iranian weapon? Is it the United States, in the end, that has to be the primary negotiator in these talks? Is the United States the primary agitator in Iran’s mind?
In the end, these are the concepts that our leaders need to address. There is little, if any, grounds to stand on that would allow us to prevent Iran from obtaining this technology. Further, there is little, if any, hope that we’ll be able to prevent the